PRECIOUS-Gold extends gains above $1,000/oz as dollar slips

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices extended gains above $1,000 an ounce in Europe on Monday, supported by weakness in the dollar in the wake of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers at the weekend.

The softer dollar is boosting interest in gold as an alternative asset, analysts said, as well as making the precious metal cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Spot gold XAU= was bid at $1,004.65 an ounce at 0929 GMT, up from $1,001.30 late in New York on Friday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery GCZ9 on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange edged up $1.70 to $1,006.00 an ounce.

As well as the weak dollar, gold is also being supported by fears over the sustainability of the recent stock market rally. U.S. equities closed down and European stocks hit a four-week closing low on Friday after weak U.S. non-farm payrolls data.

"Gold is in a period of going sideways, consolidating before the next significant move," said Mitsubishi precious metals strategist Tom Kendall.

"It is (being influenced by) the dollar, but there is also a degree of nervousness among equity investors," he said. "There are some pieces of news that are keeping people wary

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U.S Dollar: Short Term Rebound

U.S.: Rates to remain low, but an exit strategy is ready.

The economic growth is on the move again and some tangible results should be seen shortly. Inventories are being implemented and production is increasing. Spending will improve, along with commodity prices, supported by the world economic recovery. In August, car sales have moved up more than 50% year-on-year in China, India and Brazil. The housing market should continue to show the way in the United States. Housing starts rose 1.5% in August, while existing home sales declined 2.5%, but they remained well above the low registered in November. In effect, during last week FOMC¡¦s meeting, the Fed appeared more optimistic about the economic growth, albeit activity should remain subdued for some time. Durable good orders fell 2.4% (+0.5%) in August, after having increased 4.8% in July. Orders are up overall for the quarter, capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defense) increased almost 9.0% annualized over the three months, but activity is not strong enough to relief the unemployment rate from the bottom yet. As a result, rates will remain low for now and an exit strategy will be implemented as soon as the economics¡¦ turnaround becomes sustained. The Federal Reserve postponed the timeline for the purchase of mortgage-backed and agency debt to the end of the first quarter of 2010. However, current recovery should be mild, since recapitalization is still in process. The huge deficit will weight on U.S. growth and limit the American economic potential. Unemployment will remain high and savings will increase. Americans are adapting to the new reality, characterized by tight credit and increasing commodity prices, by reducing spending and tempering debt. The strong expansionary cycles of the past are history.

USD Rallies on Soft Manufacturing Data

The greenback advanced against its major rivals in the Wednesday trading session, edging higher against the euro toward the 1.46-level, while pushing the pound sterling to beneath the 1.60-figure and briefly dragging the Swiss franc to a 3-week low at 1.0447. The catalyst for the dollar’s gains was a sharply weaker than forecast report on Chicago PMI. Consensus estimates were looking for the PMI report in edge up higher beyond the key 50-level to 52.0, instead falling to 46.1 in September from a 50-reading in the previous month. The employment component edged up slightly 38.8 from 38.7 in August and the new orders index slumped to 46.3 from 52.5 previously.

The markets largely reacted to the weaker manufacturing figures with the US equity bourses losing ground early in the session and the riskier currencies relinquishing previous session’s gains versus the dollar. The final release of Q2 GDP revealed an improvement to -0.7% from -1.0% in the previous reading while the GDP deflator remained unchanged. The Q2 GDP sales component improved to 0.7%, up from 0.4% previously. Meanwhile, the September ADP private sector payrolls revealed a loss of 254k, versus an upwardly revised loss of 277 jobs from August.

The key highlight this week continues to be Friday’s September labor report. The market is expected the unemployment rate to creep higher to 9.8%, up from 9.7% a month earlier. Non-farm payrolls are seen improving in September, with a loss of 188k jobs compared with 216k jobs shed in August.

Jobs Disappoints, FX Whipsaws

The dollar was initially higher following the September labor report, rallying to 1.4481 against the euro and 1.5806 versus the pound sterling before relinquishing its earlier gains by the New York afternoon. US equities also recovered from its losses in the morning session, clawing their way back into positive territory, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq up marginally.

Although the September unemployment rate was on par with consensus estimates, the reading still touched a fresh 26-year high at 9.8% versus August at 9.7%. The most disheartening component of the labor data was the non-farm payrolls report, which defied expectations for an improvement to a loss of 180k jobs, instead revealing a considerably larger loss of 263k jobs for September compared with a revised 201k jobs shed in the previous month. Meanwhile, average earnings edged up by less than anticipated, increasing by 0.1% compared with an upwardly revised reading of 0.4% in August and average workweek drifted lower to 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours.

The economic calendar for Friday also included durable goods orders and factory orders. The headline durable goods report declined by 2.6% in August, deteriorating further from the prior month’s 2.4% decline while core durable goods orders fell by 0.3% versus a flat reading previously. Factory orders fell by 0.8% for August, missing estimates for an increase of 0.3% from 1.3% in July.